Track how companies discuss tariffs and trade policies in their earnings calls, and understand their impact across different industries and regions.
some of what we finance gets imported and decisions to defer.
Based on our top-down view of our industry concentrations, we believe this direct exposure will prove to be limited.
it is too early to assess the full impact tariffs will ultimately have on loan demand.
we have been actively analyzing our exposure to consumer and wholesale clients that we believe will be most impacted by tariffs, potential reductions in government spending and more severe economic scenarios.
We saw our two highest trading days ever, the Friday before the pausing of the tariffs and then the day that we paused tariffs.
Uncertainty around tariffs and their potential impact on economic growth and inflation has dramatically impacted investor sentiment.
I think it's too early to tell. Again, I think, you know, as we scale our business and we continue to build relationships, I think it's going to give us the ability to either hold pricing or see limited impacts to tariffs.
We could face import tariff exposure on electronics and related components from China, Southeast Asia, and Israel...
the only way they really have to respond in the near to medium term is to push prices.
Ongoing trade negotiations will continue to create challenges for businesses and this has led to reduced consumer and business confidence.
we feel pretty well positioned for that, Andrew.
But feel very good about our supply chain today and about our labor force today, and we'll just take whatever comes out of the tariffs as it comes at us once it settles down.
Recent tariff actions and resulting volatility in the financial markets could manifest in changes to client confidence, affecting hiring, capital investment, and M&A.
the effects of the last quarter on the general populace with popped off by the tariffs were so pervasive that they outran our progress in those things.
While we expect some near-term volatility stemming from the changes in trade policy, we are well-positioned to effectively serve our customers and will benefit from a stronger economy in the long term.
I think small businesses might be the ones that would be impacted first.
Uncertainty is really mostly reflected in the perm numbers that we think are going to be a little bit softer.
We're monitoring the developments and their potential impact on business activity and the leasing market.
Tariffs will have a negative impact to West Coast businesses and the local economies.
The April second tariff announcements represented just such a surprise. And in our view will lead to a meaningful stagflationary impact on the US, at least in the short run.
Since the recent tariff announcements, we have seen some tenants defer decision making amid increased economic uncertainty.
20% of our clients felt increased tariffs would have a meaningful impact on their respective businesses.
We are actively assessing the implication of tariffs across our business and have already begun mitigation efforts.
there's a lot of uncertainty around tariffs. That uncertainty creates opportunities for us.
We haven't seen a slowdown yet. We haven't seen any commentary from the marketplace and we haven't seen any pullback from any decisions in our portfolio yet.
According to our findings, F.N.B. remains well-positioned at this point with manageable exposure to the most heavily tariff impacted businesses and consumer portfolios.
It's a mathematical problem. It's not necessarily a deal killer.
we estimate the tariff impact in 2025 to be a few hundred million dollars.
At this point, we did not believe that the tariffs will have a significant impact on project economics.
We remain cautious about the remainder of the year, as we navigate the complexities of tariffs and other economic factors.
Assuming the tariffs as they've been announced remain in place and are largely passed through, we'd expect somewhere around a mid-single-digit increase to PI auto severity.
We're closely watching the daily changes in trade and tariff policy.
We are now subject to 25% tariff cost, which totals an estimated $400 to $425 million annually.
The basis for our full year guide had anticipated some choppiness in the first half of the year tied to the rollout of tariffs.
the allowance this quarter also included some incremental qualitative reserves to reflect increased tariff-induced macroeconomic uncertainty.
We're looking at the credit portfolio. You know, working through, making sure we understand potential tariff impact.
We are closely monitoring the potential impact on the prices we would pay for aircraft.
we would have raised our expectations for 2025. Instead, we are electing to maintain earnings guidance as there are no policy conclusions right now to plan differently
the impacts of tariffs and related policies contribute to a wait-and-see mindset among many.
We recognize there are a lot of questions right now about how tariffs may impact the market.
Well, it would dampen economic activity here in the US and abroad. Cross-border trade flows will change.
If these tariffs are implemented as proposed and remain in effect for an extended period, it's quite possible the probability of a recession will go up.
As we look at the especially in the next ninety days. And how some of these tariffs and other moves get negotiated or do they stay in place?
We procure more than 90% of our products domestically, so that's a very different position than some of the competitive set out there.
The somewhat pause that we're seeing from larger organizations and medium-sized organizations due to the tariff concerns last all through the quarter.
We do not yet see any decrease in the appetite of our non-US clients for opening an account and trading mostly US markets.
We're monitoring markets, tariff policy, tax rules, regulatory requirements, and we'll react as necessary to steer our company.
Our credit officers are working their portfolios, trying to understand what tariffs or a protracted trade war could do to our portfolio.
clients are simply waiting on more clarity on trade policy and the regulatory environment before committing to deals.
What's included in the $400 million, and again, that is primarily MedTech tariffs at this point.
the prospect of a recession has increased with growing indications that economic activity is slowing down around the world. This uncertainty around the path forward and fears over the potentially escalating effects of the trade war have created material risks to the US and global economy.
The ultimate impact on tariffs on the broader economy remains unknown at this point.
Importantly, our construction remains on schedule for our first building and we expect it to be ready for service and ready to begin generating revenue in the calendar fourth quarter of 2025. Nearly all the equipment for this building is landed, giving us not only confidence in the schedule, but it also means tariffs will not materially impact our build cost.
the main thing that we see there is what would appear to be a certain amount of front-loading of spending ahead of people expecting price increases from tariffs.
Last week's tariff announcements were clearly part of a broader strategy and an effort to reset trade relations between the US and the rest of the world.
We're being very thoughtful about that because about 15% of our revenue is in Canada or Mexico.
Markets may take some time to sort out saber rattling around trade and tariffs, but BlackRock and our clients see growth and opportunity.
We support the administration's willingness to look at barriers to fair trade in the United States. Though there are certainly risks associated with such significant actions.
While tariff announcements and subsequent market volatility have disrupted near-term deal activity, our pipelines have not meaningfully changed since the beginning of the year and remain robust.
As new car prices go up, that will put a bigger spread between late-model used and new cars.
the guidance that we provided does include the impact for all tariffs announced by the U.S. government on April 2nd and by the Canadian government on March 4th.
This new international trade landscape creates additional complexities and will potentially bring cost pressures.
we expect gross margins to be down approximately 200 basis points versus last year... as well as a preliminary estimate for the anticipated costs related to recently announced tariffs.
Given broad economic uncertainty around global trade, growth has largely stalled.
The administration's position on tariffs and the actions announced last week have added to this uncertain environment.
we believe these cost savings will largely offset the financial impact of any potential tariffs for the remainder of this fiscal year.
the impact of tariffs on inflation is dynamic, but we can tell you what we know.
Given last week's tariff announcement, we're dealing with a dynamic macro environment.
Tariffs are impacting the cost of our inputs, predominantly steel, and constructional changes in how our customers operate.
Given the timing of yesterday's announcement and the uncertainty, we have not included any impact from tariffs in our financial outlook.
We approach tariffs as the equivalent of a supply shock and our financial priorities are: first, to manage the dollar impact; and second to manage the margin impact.
We anticipate the impact of the proposed tariffs to result in a marginal increase to our cost of goods, which we will pass through in increased pricing.
But, and this is the big but, five, we are still monitoring inflation, tariffs, consumer sentiment, and the need for pricing.
There remains hesitancy and caution among our customer base around future production levels due to tariff uncertainty, potentially looming inflation, and sustained high interest rates.
We have not built in any specific impact of the tariffs related to the uncertainty of the situation.
We do not expect a negative impact to results related to previously announced increased tariffs on products from China, Canada or Mexico.
While we currently don't see that tariffs will directly impact our products and service, we do expect some indirect effects on BlackBerry due to impacts to our customers, including supply chains and macroeconomic demand, although these effects are currently difficult to model.