Track how companies discuss tariffs and trade policies in their earnings calls, and understand their impact across different industries and regions.
In our US business, we source most of our food products from within the country. So, we're not expecting tariffs to have a material impact on our operating profit.
At this point, we don't believe that given our diversified supply chain, the tariffs will have effect on our hardware business.
we have low tariff exposure across our systems business as the majority of our finished goods are USMCA compliant and are therefore duty free on import into The United States from our Mexico based contract manufacturing facility.
Though none of us are enjoying the continually evolving tariff situation, it is yet another example of the nimble execution capabilities of our organization.
We foresee a headwind from the current tariffs here in the second quarter, but we expect we will have largely offset their impact on our 2025 results by the time we enter the second half of the year.
the gross margin was also impacted by new tariff expenses of approximately $650,000 in the quarter that were not reimbursed during the quarter.
It is too early to see signs of impact... we will remain disciplined around credit as we monitor the impact of the new tariff policies on our customers and our communities.
we'll also be thinking about potential tariff impacts when making bid decisions.
Clearly, in the quarter, we benefited in March from a pull-in effect as buyers accelerated their planned vehicle purchases to avoid the coming tariffs.
I don't expect tariffs to have a meaningful sort of overall impact on our capital expenditures.
we are keeping an eye towards federal policy development including tariffs, changes in the inflation reduction act, tax policy, and other relevant legislation that may impact our base capital plans or renewable procurement.
we look forward to collaborating with the administration to support US manufacturing by addressing the unintended consequences of tariffs on feedstocks, given international RD imports to the US are untariffed, which disadvantages domestic producers like Rodeo.
we did an analysis of the portfolio of the sectors that we thought would be impacted by tariffs.
the degree to which that will continue is very path dependent, and depends on what happens during this ninety-day window to hopefully resolve the uncertainty over the tariff regime in particular.
Based on current information, we expect the impact of tariffs to be around $10 million annually.
Broadly speaking, we are partially protected by our activity mix, with approximately 80% of our revenue derived from international markets, as well as by our diversified supply chain network that includes in-country manufacturing and local sourcing.
We are assessing the potential impact of tariffs, and we have been working diligently to mitigate the impact of current tariffs on our results.
The proposed higher tariffs would result in meaningful increases to our product costs, if not otherwise mitigated.
Needless to say, tariff risk is at top of mind of everyone.
Today, tariffs have had limited direct impact on our business and financial results.
We are not comfortable with providing estimates at this time. We just do not have enough insight into what might happen.
We expect the impact of tariffs that have been announced since our conference call in January and that are currently in effect to have an incremental impact of roughly $200 million in 2025 versus our initial guidance.
Approximately $4 million in tariff costs from the newly introduced tariff regime in the US that are expected to be passed through 100% in the second quarter.
Any related impact from these tariffs as well as other potential new or reciprocal tariffs have not been contemplated in our guidance.
we foresee de minimis impact from tariffs.
we are closely monitoring the evolving trade policy landscape and its potential impact, our current assessment is minimal exposure to industries most likely to be directly affected by tariffs.
It's too early to tell what impact tariffs could have on PECO or our neighbors.
We're just not hearing a lot of distress over pricing moving way outside of what they can handle.
With respect to tariffs, we do not yet know their impact and remain in close contact with our clients to assist them through any uncertainty.
The revision that we've given you from $50 to $75 million of revenue now versus the higher rate is purely an end market estimation of the impact of tariffs.
Now like all of you, we're trying to figure out the impact of tariffs on the growth trajectory for the rest of the year.
the volume reduction was due to three different but related items: inventory adjustments in anticipation of continued economic uncertainty, a wait-and-see approach by customers who are now subject to tariffs on their end products
We’ve been pretty active on that front, Nate. And so far, I think it’s fair to say most clients are taking kind of like a wait and see approach.
It's hard to know just because we're so early in the game. Many of the expensive components have already been ordered and are in hand.
If tariffs and other policy changes hurt the economy or make construction more expensive, that will impact our customers and that would in turn impact us.
On the cost side, about 60% of our costs are either labor or energy and we do not see any tariff impact on any of that.
Assuming the worst, it could drive up the cost of building supplies.
The lending environment remains tempered as economic uncertainty and ongoing changes in trade policies weigh on customer sentiment and loan demand.
homebuilder sentiment waned somewhat as the quarter progressed and prospective buyers turned more cautious in response to elevated uncertainty surrounding tariffs in the broader economy.
We're being very careful... we put on enhanced underwriting because of the tariffs.
the impact of tariffs may add some uncertainty.
Substantially, all tariffs paid by Celestica are expected to be recovered from our customers and are not expected to impact our non-GAAP-adjusted EBIT or non-GAAP-adjusted net earning dollars.
I think the tariffs probably will affect, you know, the price. Of automobiles, parts, building materials, supplies.
…concerns about them and the volatility that was happening in many of the other markets, again, looking at our institutional nature, we had substantial outflows due to margin calls…
The change in our non-GAAP EPS expectations for 2025 is primarily a result of the projected impact of tariffs, trade policies and related actions recently implemented by the U.S. and other countries.
The short answer is absolutely what you described as de minimis, you know, direct exposure, you know, to tariffs.
We've yet, Chris, to see where any of our customers have told us that their inputs, their price of raw material has been impacted by tariffs or certain other price changes.
We believe tariff effects are likely to drive up construction costs and further reduce new supply.
volatility resulting from tariffs and the potential for reciprocal tariffs could cause clients to pause or reevaluate projects over the coming months and quarters.
We have not seen any clients decay out of the pipeline as a byproduct of this. It's more about pausing in certain areas, particularly in the ABL sector, than it is absolutely shutting down from the transaction.
We are fortunate that the simplicity of our supply chain, where our customers are the importers of our product, means that we should not directly incur any material tariff costs.
We are analyzing the impact of tariffs on new originations through relationship management discussions and quarterly portfolio reviews.
While tariff uncertainty remains a concern for automotive, we are closely aligned with our customers providing guidance and solutions every step of the way.
the changes to the de minimis exemption will obviously cause slight headwind to our ads business in 2025, primarily from APAC-based retailers.
we do not anticipate tariffs to have a meaningful impact on our financial results.
Overall, we expect the impact of tariffs in 2025 to be a limited headwind to the business.
the idea that tariffs are causing an increase in inventory costs probably has a lesser impact.
Significant uncertainty exists today regarding the manner in which changes in trade and tariff policies may ultimately impact international markets.
Clearly, we've seen elevated and ongoing market volatility due to lack of clarity around the tariffs and general economic uncertainty.
Engineered products and specifically vehicle services, are the most exposed to tariffs of Chinese imported subcomponents, in our case, structural steel.
We do not anticipate a material impact to our business arising from the current tariff measures, announced so far as our suppliers, customers, and end consumers are all typically regional in nature.
Recent disruption from tariffs has weighed on expectations for global economic growth, as it has on business and consumer sentiment.
Insofar as tariffs are concerned, we continue to address these with the same levers we have spoken about previously. Cost-sharing with vendors, sourcing optimization, and price adjustments.
Recent policy shifts and ongoing talks about potential tariffs have created significant short-term volatility, and that uncertainty is at this point weighing on global GDP growth expectations.
If fully enacted, the tariff structure as most recently publicized will lead to higher equipment costs.
we don't believe tariffs are really going to be a big impact on us from a financial standpoint, it's an opportunity to slow down deals.
I don't want to pay any more for aircraft. It doesn't make sense.
Obviously, there's a lot of uncertainty right now with tariffs. To the extent that we get a trade policy clarified, I think there could certainly be some pent-up demand.
we have taken steps to mitigate the potential tariff impacts on these projects, and we have also identified capital projects that can be deferred if needed.
Our hope is that wherever this lands, we ultimately end up enhancing the competitiveness of US companies like Bristol-Myers Squibb Company.
the economic environment is given the volatility driven by tariffs and other policy initiatives
The biggest tariff impact in our business is being felt in the equipment area where the manufacturer or components that are impacting their costs.
A lot of folks are trying to better understand, you know, without guessing necessarily, but position themselves to take advantage of certain trade situations, you know, tariffs particularly, by reducing inventory.
Current tariff rates would suggest approximately $20 million of impact to us.
Although the situation is fluid and evolving rapidly, we do not expect announced tariffs to materially impact our business.
The uncertainty on tariffs is a minor headwind and specifically for specialty proteins. However, tariffs are generally supportive of higher domestic fat prices.
US tariff policy has heavily influenced sentiment on the global economy in recent weeks, but the facts are that copper demand remains strong globally.
Historically, when the industry has seen tariffs, they've been good for the industry, they've been good for LKQ Corporation.
We must acknowledge the costs imposed by current tariffs... Ultimately, tariffs translate into higher consumer prices. Potential job losses as we adjust to absorb increased costs, and reduced profits for our shareholders.
The proposed tariff would impact approximately $10 million of Visteon products imported from Mexico into the US on a weekly basis.
We've yet to see any real impact on credit related to the tariff announcements but as you can imagine, we're spending a ton of time consulting with our clients on potential impacts and looking for potential vulnerabilities in our portfolio.
We are now forecasting only modest headwinds from net interest income and expense, and an effective tax rate roughly in line with the prior year. Combined, these below-the-line items are around a $0.04 headwind to core EPS.
We are closely monitoring consumer reaction to tariffs, trade policy, and broader concerns...
Discussions on tariffs and sanctions have certainly made it hard to see where the direction that's going.
Expectations are that new and used vehicle GPUs could remain elevated as inventories tighten from imposed tariffs.
We are closely monitoring how current trade dynamics are impacting the retail, and we are committed to helping our partners and customers successfully navigate challenging macro environments.
We're seeing a very modest, call it less than 5% impact to potential build costs when it comes to digital.
Our sourcing is primarily from domestic suppliers. Deploying our performance playbook, we intend to offset tariff-related cost pressures and inflation.
the potential for continued volatility and unintended consequences of trade policy
we believe the potential tariff impacts are manageable, and within our non-GAAP gross margin guidance range of a low to mid 80% for the full year.
At current tariff rates, we have the potential to incur up to $100 million to $125 million of incremental net tariff costs in 2025.
It is important to understand TechnipFMC's limited exposure to the recently announced tariffs.
we haven't seen a tariff impact in terms of anything moving amongst our North American operations.
Approximately $200 million of expected cost from tariffs implemented to date primarily between the US and China.
If the price of handsets rises significantly with tariffs, would it be your anticipation that you would increase your subsidies accordingly, or would you expect to pass those higher costs on to customers?
We've seen a steep drop-off in our travel and accident business... and I think that's probably related to tariffs.
the macroeconomic concerns and tariffs have everybody kind of hedging their bets in what they need to have from an inventory perspective.
from a tariff cost exposure standpoint, I think we have, on a relative basis, very low risk. We source most of our material and equipment domestically.
I believe Knowles Corporation is well-positioned to continue to deliver growth in earnings and revenue despite the current tariff environment.
the downturn in overseas demand for our taxable fixed income strategies, largely driving a $1.4 billion in firm-wide taxable outflows.
Based on the tariffs that have been set, we believe the net impact to our business will be $20 million to $25 million for the remaining three quarters of 2025.
I think to the extent that it does land and if it's a material thing, you know, ultimately, I think we're gonna see that the customer is gonna wind up having to bear that cost.
These trade tensions have contributed to uncertainty and impacted commercial real estate demand, especially in sectors tied to global supply chains.
there is a pickup in restructuring matters in the United States stemming in part from tariff-induced stress.
As we reflect on the tariffs that have been enacted to date, these could increase some of our indirect costs, but are expected to be manageable in 2025.
We estimate tariff costs of approximately $80 million in 2025 and we expect to offset tariffs at the operating profit and EPS level on a full-year basis primarily through pricing actions.
Should current rates remain elevated at 145%, we estimate a potential gross margin headwind of approximately $5 million in 2025.
We expect to use these surcharge mechanisms to pass through the impact of any incremental tariffs on our raw materials to our customers.
We are taking advantage of that to pre-purchase tariff-impacted construction materials for better pricing.
the tariff environment adds incremental pressure to our cost base
International trade tensions and the new tariffs have emerged as unpredictable variables in the current environment.
The direct impact of tariffs to FirstService Corporation are immaterial. However, as I have indicated in my comments, we are seeing a moderate indirect impact.
We're actively monitoring the landscape and have a diverse supply chain, which limits our exposure to tariffs.
the uncertainty created by the new administration's recent tariff announcements, which certainly raises the possibility of a national recession during the year.
recent proposals in the US around tariffs, trade, and fiscal policy have added risk around the trajectory of employment, inflation, interest rates, and global economic growth.
We have proactively brought in inventory of model year '25 vehicles to North America, which are unaffected by the new tariffs.
We are working closely with our manufacturer partners to understand the tariff impact and our manufacturer production pricing decisions.
we anticipate some gross margin headwinds due to the evolving tariff landscape.
Obviously, consumer confidence is, as of today, about to be determined based on new policies, fiscal policies, and tariffs, which are under evaluation.
While the macro picture has been clouded by talk of tariffs and trade negotiations, we've continued to see stability in our home Midwestern markets.
Tariff uncertainty has driven most economic growth estimates lower, while inflation expectations are rising.
the cost impact of tariffs at current levels is expected to be minimal relative to the size of the cost base of the company and thus manageable within our guidance range.
the changes to the de minimis exemption will obviously cause slight headwind to our ads business in 2025, primarily from APAC-based retailers.
driven by uncertainty created by the tariff situation, our outlook has become less clearer.
We are closely monitoring the evolving tariff situation and are very much focused on managing the variables that are within our control.
There's a lot of macro noise with tariffs, the path of rates, inflation, and uncertainty in the general economy.
Our industrial end markets are exposed to tariff-related uncertainty, which was evident during the first quarter before the April 2 announcement.
While we continue to see new opportunities in the pipeline, the pace has slowed recently due to overall macroeconomic uncertainty.
the tariff situation is is kind of a replay of COVID situation we had a few years ago.
As a financial services provider, we do not require inputs or produce products that are subject to trade tariffs.
Given the cadence of tariff announcements and the evolving start and stop nature of these discussions ever since, we don't yet know to what degree, if any, tariff-related cost increases will impact our gross margin in the second half of 2025.
The tariffs add a fair amount of uncertainty to what's going on in the economy, and that makes it difficult for people to make incremental investments.
Recent U.S. Trade discussions have created significant uncertainty around changes to global supply chains, taxes, inflation, and interest rates.
There is both on the production ag side and the dairy side, there are exports that go out, and so there could be some impact. But overall, there hasn't been that great of an impact yet.
We are fortunate to have limited exposure with respect to tariffs.
What we are hearing back from them today is that it is just too soon to make a definitive statement on what impact, if any, tariffs are going to have on their sourcing of product.
While conservatively assessing the remainder of the fiscal year, and acknowledging the uncertainty associated with tariffs, we continue to anticipate achieving meaningful EPS growth in fiscal 2025.
Given the uncertainties that exist in the current environment around tariffs and the broader impacts of the economy, we are adjusting our 2025 outlook for loan growth to mid-single-digit growth.
We continue to work with our borrowing base to help them navigate this environment, while also ensuring that our reserves adequately consider the potential risk back in.
we revised the bottom end of our full year 2025 EBITDA guidance in acknowledgment that we may be impacted by different geopolitical uncertainties, including tariffs and regulatory changes.
However, we did not see significant adverse impacts on our business from these policy discussions on our first quarter results...
we remain challenged by the ongoing macroeconomic environment and are monitoring the uncertainty around international trade relations and tariffs.
Tariff-related price changes had a very minimal impact on same SKU inflation in the first quarter.
A couple of points. To your comment, we probably have to pass it on like happened post-COVID when we all had to enjoy some pretty healthy increases.
To the inevitable question about how our business may have been affected by concerns about tariffs or other geopolitical elements impacting expectations or the economy more broadly, we did not see any noteworthy impacts, including with respect to solid waste organic growth.
When you factor in the various mitigants, it is a manageable impact from a loss cost perspective.
We believe we can mitigate most of the direct impact from ongoing and potential future tariffs on our cost structure.
We are maintaining guidance due to uncertainty regarding the impact of the recently announced policy changes.
No matter how you look at it, Whirlpool, with its 10 large US factories, is a net winner of a new tariff policy.
We expect pressure on our operating margin as a result of the weakening dollar, the impact of announced tariffs, and the expected midyear close of the Yenovale acquisition.
We've lost some from the quarter-end backlog... Strategics might be quicker to put down their pencils on supply chain affected transactions.
We recognize that the current tariff and global economic environment is dynamic, but thus far, we have not seen any meaningful changes for our customers' plans.
We've looked deeply at this issue... and we're highly confident that the, quote, moderate reduction in Hollywood imports announced by China Film Administration will largely target films with limited box office potential in the market.
the recent macro uncertainty and tariff situation impact your conversation with clients and the sales cycle
We have reaffirmed that our products are subject to global tariff relief for decades.
We do expect our cost to go up $300 to $400 million in 2025 due to tariffs and resulting inflation.
We cannot yet discern to what extent the defense businesses will be impacted over time.
There is a dramatic increase in construction material costs that could, in the future, affect construction.
It is a time of high uncertainty in the world, as tariffs and geopolitics are disrupting global supply chains and creating unpredictable economic conditions.
we are not expecting to see any meaningful increase in our direct costs in the near term.
We continue to closely monitor potential tariff impacts and broader shifts in our consumer sentiment.
We actually believe our customer will remain relatively resilient given the importance of sending money home.
At this point, our customers are expressing more concern around cost impacts of tariffs and less concern regarding demand from their customers.
Nonetheless, the current indirect impact of tariffs is minor for Carlisle overall and should remain so for the rest of 2025.
Under current US tariff policy, the impact to IBM is minimal.
If they don't adapt their global supply network fast enough, their cost will increase by up to $10,000 a vehicle.
We currently manufacture 100% of our products in the United States... In addition, approximately three-quarters of our raw materials and components are currently sourced in the United States.
macroeconomic factors such as higher inflation and uncertainty regarding tariffs have driven cautiousness to spend on new projects across the banking sector.
we are cautious with regards to our North American business as the current tariff activities play out over the remainder of the year.
We're not immune to the tariff shock waves, but I believe we are well-positioned to play offense.
The extent of the tariffs currently imposed on imports from China is substantial and will increase our overall costs considerably, particularly in our plumbing segment.
After discussion with our suppliers, we currently estimate Energy Resources has less than $150 million in tariff exposure through 2028 on over $75 billion in expected capital spend.
For those products that are impacted, we have already been working with our customers to minimize the impact.
The tariff situation is quite dynamic and fluid... the uncertainty that the tariffs situation creates.
Despite the uncertainty with tariffs, our teams in Texas and Oklahoma are optimistic based on conversations with our customers about their outlook and plans.
We are carefully monitoring the potential impact of proposed tariffs on our business.
we do not currently anticipate a material impact on our business from recently introduced or discussed tariffs.
announced tariffs could be a headwind to volumes for the remainder of the year.
we anticipate continued ambiguity relative to domestic and foreign tariff actions and their effect on global trade and our demand trends.
the recent volatility due to tariff uncertainty, which has impacted markets and raised recession concerns.
Some of that is probably going to be a tariff impact on parts and repairs.
The announced tariffs could potentially increase the cost of smartphones, and other devices as well as the cost of network and technical equipment.
Even with the high tariffs that for now it will not be imposed, but even with these high tariffs that might be imposed, the max exposure on us will be expected to be less than half a point to our total margin.
the tariff is a catalyst for that.
We highlight it as a potential risk, but we think it's unlikely.
This updated guidance includes all known and anticipated impacts of tariffs, including incremental price actions, inflation and potential volume softness.
The recent change in tariffs will likely have both direct and indirect impacts on our business.
The impact of the recent tariff announcements has to date had very little impact on our business and financial results.
The tariff rates here are so substantial that they're likely to significantly reduce the volume of trade between the two countries.
market participants look to hedge exposures to tariff policies and geopolitical dynamics.
The combination of tariffs, uncertainty over global capital flows and disagreement between the administration of the Federal Reserve on monetary policy has contributed to increased market volatility.
We are currently paying the 10% tariff on those components... but we should recover tariff costs for those aircraft that are subsequently exported.
our exposure is relatively limited and I would say minimal.
To the extent that there are some impacts of these tariffs, is there some pressure to some of our general managers that, they have to work with customers, to find a way to pass that on?
Inflation, tariff concerns, and broader uncertainty, including the potential for a recession, are creating additional pressure on both our direct-to-consumer and retail partner channels.
There's been so much uncertainty and so much volatility just within the economy in general, but that's translated itself to demand as well week-to-week.
We had some really good days in our precious and non-precious metals business because of the fear of tariffs which came to be.
Despite these headwinds, it's worth highlighting that our first quarter's pace was still solidly ahead of our pre-COVID historic average.
we forecast an approximate $200 million impact in 2025.
If tariffs on our Chinese imports continue at current levels for the remainder of the year, we expect a negative impact of approximately $45 to $75 million to our operating profit in 2025 inclusive of our mitigation efforts.
We continue to have ongoing conversations with each of our opportunities, each of our customers to see what the impact of them individually is because each one is going to be a little bit different.
the combination of the key factors in the economic forecast weighting gives Veritex a very conservative allowance result.
We estimate a net EBITDA impact in the range of $100 million to $200 million.
We went and did a credit by credit analysis of all of our largest commercial borrowers and looked at tariff exposure.
The tariffs, risk mitigation to address numerous supply chain dislocations of accelerated reshoring and manufacturing.
we are now dealing with the uncertainty of tariffs and their potential inflationary effects that have the potential to affect future demand for our wooden building products.
we are intently monitoring the impact of tariffs and other administrative policies on our customer base, interest rates and credit related issues, we feel it is early in the process and we have not yet seen an immediate impact.
We are mindful of a potential impact tariffs could have on short-tail lines of business and are watching closely.
Regardless of how the tariff dust settles here in the weeks or months ahead, we see demand remaining relatively strong.
We remain confident it will be tariff resistant.
we still have not seen activity pick up and believe any activity additions will be disproportionately impacted by tariff-driven inflation.
We had a solid Q1, little to no impact on the Q1 results from the implementation of tariffs.
Proposed tariffs have the potential to add thousands of dollars to the cost of construction.
Clearly, the most recent heightened trade tensions have created an overhang on the domestic Chinese economy
We estimate that the current U.S. trade policies based upon a minimum tariff of 10% for Thailand, would result in approximately $3 million of incremental cost to Iridium this year.
We think if tariffs are -- if the tariff wars sort of really continue on, the auto business is I think might be really quite impacted because the immediate effect would be an almost certain increase in vehicle prices.
there's a lot of uncertainty around the tariff environment and things like that.
we took the opportunity to increase our allowance for credit loss, incorporating global trade and economic uncertainty in our reserve level.
Tariffs are still tough on a company when margins are still low.
Given the decline in interest rates and obviously the weakening of the dollar, we also saw flows going into emerging markets and new inflows into emerging markets.
If the tariff is going to be as high as they say on the handsets, we are not planning to cover that in our work.
the majority of what we sell in the US is sourced and made locally here in the US...our combined exposure to three specific countries, China, Mexico and Canada, was just less or around 10% of our total cost of goods.
The newly announced 145% tariff on products from China, along with the 10% reciprocal tariffs on import from other countries is expected to have minimal impact on our microinverters and accessories.
We are clearly in a period of significant economic and market volatility, principally from uncertainty around tariffs and their impact on U.S. inflation and interest rates.
Ultimate tariff impacts are impossible to predict at this point.
As tariffs impact the cost of inventory, precise inventory management and handling of inventory to optimally satisfy end customers is more important than ever.
We're also actively mitigating near-term tariffs.
Tariffs are not new for East West or our customers. We have been taking tariffs into consideration since 2017.
Based on what is currently implemented, we believe we can largely offset the impact from these tariffs through a combination of supply chain adjustments, surcharges, manufacturing footprint changes and other cost actions.
We feel comfortable maintaining our initial 2025 sales and adjusted EPS guidance with the current tariff impacts.
We currently expect the impact to our income statement for 2025 to be additional cost of sales of approximately 1.7% of revenue, plus or minus 30 basis points.
When it comes to tariffs, we don't expect any direct impact to our procurement costs in 2025.
we believe our exposure is small... any tariff impact we think we can cover at this point, given the guidance that we've put out there.
Tariffs are going to be a headwind this year, but we thought it would be prudent to hold the impact outside of our full-year guidance while I digest the new policies and fully develop and qualify mitigation plans.
Our strong profit we realized in the first quarter provides increased confidence in our ability to absorb currently estimated 2025 profit impacts from tariffs.
We do not see at this point in time a significant risk to our company related to the trade policies as we understand them today.
the implementation of tariffs and retaliatory tariffs as they are unknown at this point.
While the services that Moody's provides are not directly impacted by tariffs announced to date, we do believe many businesses are being impacted by the uncertainty of impending trade tensions.
we have reasonable visibility of what is going to happen in Q2, and that is about an impact of $0.02 to $0.03.
Despite this, we remain focused on what we can control, providing excellent customer service and executing on our strategic initiatives to make the business smarter, faster, and better.
We estimate there would be a cost impact of around $250 million, assuming current tariff rates remain in place for the rest of the year.
The April 2 tariff announcement was a shock for the markets.
We estimate that about 1.4% of total loans could be adversely impacted by the proposed tariffs.
we are paying close attention as you would expect to the tariffs. And it is a very fluid situation as everyone has an appreciation.
the combined impact of tariffs and other potential federal government actions has increased economic uncertainty.
the tariff deals kind of shook everybody up a little bit.
Much attention is focused on US trade policy; uncertainty is also arising around other topics such as taxes, geopolitics, interest rates, deficits, and deregulation.
some of what we finance gets imported and decisions to defer.
Based on our top-down view of our industry concentrations, we believe this direct exposure will prove to be limited.
it is too early to assess the full impact tariffs will ultimately have on loan demand.
we have been actively analyzing our exposure to consumer and wholesale clients that we believe will be most impacted by tariffs, potential reductions in government spending and more severe economic scenarios.
We saw our two highest trading days ever, the Friday before the pausing of the tariffs and then the day that we paused tariffs.
Uncertainty around tariffs and their potential impact on economic growth and inflation has dramatically impacted investor sentiment.
I think it's too early to tell. Again, I think, you know, as we scale our business and we continue to build relationships, I think it's going to give us the ability to either hold pricing or see limited impacts to tariffs.
We could face import tariff exposure on electronics and related components from China, Southeast Asia, and Israel...
the only way they really have to respond in the near to medium term is to push prices.
Ongoing trade negotiations will continue to create challenges for businesses and this has led to reduced consumer and business confidence.
we feel pretty well positioned for that, Andrew.
But feel very good about our supply chain today and about our labor force today, and we'll just take whatever comes out of the tariffs as it comes at us once it settles down.
Recent tariff actions and resulting volatility in the financial markets could manifest in changes to client confidence, affecting hiring, capital investment, and M&A.
the effects of the last quarter on the general populace with popped off by the tariffs were so pervasive that they outran our progress in those things.
While we expect some near-term volatility stemming from the changes in trade policy, we are well-positioned to effectively serve our customers and will benefit from a stronger economy in the long term.
I think small businesses might be the ones that would be impacted first.
Uncertainty is really mostly reflected in the perm numbers that we think are going to be a little bit softer.
We're monitoring the developments and their potential impact on business activity and the leasing market.
Tariffs will have a negative impact to West Coast businesses and the local economies.
The April second tariff announcements represented just such a surprise. And in our view will lead to a meaningful stagflationary impact on the US, at least in the short run.
Since the recent tariff announcements, we have seen some tenants defer decision making amid increased economic uncertainty.
20% of our clients felt increased tariffs would have a meaningful impact on their respective businesses.
We are actively assessing the implication of tariffs across our business and have already begun mitigation efforts.
there's a lot of uncertainty around tariffs. That uncertainty creates opportunities for us.
We haven't seen a slowdown yet. We haven't seen any commentary from the marketplace and we haven't seen any pullback from any decisions in our portfolio yet.
According to our findings, F.N.B. remains well-positioned at this point with manageable exposure to the most heavily tariff impacted businesses and consumer portfolios.
It's a mathematical problem. It's not necessarily a deal killer.
we estimate the tariff impact in 2025 to be a few hundred million dollars.
At this point, we did not believe that the tariffs will have a significant impact on project economics.
We remain cautious about the remainder of the year, as we navigate the complexities of tariffs and other economic factors.
Assuming the tariffs as they've been announced remain in place and are largely passed through, we'd expect somewhere around a mid-single-digit increase to PI auto severity.
We're closely watching the daily changes in trade and tariff policy.
We are now subject to 25% tariff cost, which totals an estimated $400 to $425 million annually.
The basis for our full year guide had anticipated some choppiness in the first half of the year tied to the rollout of tariffs.
the allowance this quarter also included some incremental qualitative reserves to reflect increased tariff-induced macroeconomic uncertainty.
We're looking at the credit portfolio. You know, working through, making sure we understand potential tariff impact.
We are closely monitoring the potential impact on the prices we would pay for aircraft.
we would have raised our expectations for 2025. Instead, we are electing to maintain earnings guidance as there are no policy conclusions right now to plan differently
the impacts of tariffs and related policies contribute to a wait-and-see mindset among many.
We recognize there are a lot of questions right now about how tariffs may impact the market.
Well, it would dampen economic activity here in the US and abroad. Cross-border trade flows will change.
If these tariffs are implemented as proposed and remain in effect for an extended period, it's quite possible the probability of a recession will go up.
As we look at the especially in the next ninety days. And how some of these tariffs and other moves get negotiated or do they stay in place?
We procure more than 90% of our products domestically, so that's a very different position than some of the competitive set out there.
The somewhat pause that we're seeing from larger organizations and medium-sized organizations due to the tariff concerns last all through the quarter.
We do not yet see any decrease in the appetite of our non-US clients for opening an account and trading mostly US markets.
We're monitoring markets, tariff policy, tax rules, regulatory requirements, and we'll react as necessary to steer our company.
Our credit officers are working their portfolios, trying to understand what tariffs or a protracted trade war could do to our portfolio.
clients are simply waiting on more clarity on trade policy and the regulatory environment before committing to deals.
What's included in the $400 million, and again, that is primarily MedTech tariffs at this point.
the prospect of a recession has increased with growing indications that economic activity is slowing down around the world. This uncertainty around the path forward and fears over the potentially escalating effects of the trade war have created material risks to the US and global economy.
The ultimate impact on tariffs on the broader economy remains unknown at this point.
Importantly, our construction remains on schedule for our first building and we expect it to be ready for service and ready to begin generating revenue in the calendar fourth quarter of 2025. Nearly all the equipment for this building is landed, giving us not only confidence in the schedule, but it also means tariffs will not materially impact our build cost.
the main thing that we see there is what would appear to be a certain amount of front-loading of spending ahead of people expecting price increases from tariffs.
Last week's tariff announcements were clearly part of a broader strategy and an effort to reset trade relations between the US and the rest of the world.
We're being very thoughtful about that because about 15% of our revenue is in Canada or Mexico.
Markets may take some time to sort out saber rattling around trade and tariffs, but BlackRock and our clients see growth and opportunity.
We support the administration's willingness to look at barriers to fair trade in the United States. Though there are certainly risks associated with such significant actions.
While tariff announcements and subsequent market volatility have disrupted near-term deal activity, our pipelines have not meaningfully changed since the beginning of the year and remain robust.
As new car prices go up, that will put a bigger spread between late-model used and new cars.
the guidance that we provided does include the impact for all tariffs announced by the U.S. government on April 2nd and by the Canadian government on March 4th.
This new international trade landscape creates additional complexities and will potentially bring cost pressures.
we expect gross margins to be down approximately 200 basis points versus last year... as well as a preliminary estimate for the anticipated costs related to recently announced tariffs.
Given broad economic uncertainty around global trade, growth has largely stalled.
The administration's position on tariffs and the actions announced last week have added to this uncertain environment.
we believe these cost savings will largely offset the financial impact of any potential tariffs for the remainder of this fiscal year.
the impact of tariffs on inflation is dynamic, but we can tell you what we know.
Given last week's tariff announcement, we're dealing with a dynamic macro environment.
Tariffs are impacting the cost of our inputs, predominantly steel, and constructional changes in how our customers operate.
Given the timing of yesterday's announcement and the uncertainty, we have not included any impact from tariffs in our financial outlook.
We approach tariffs as the equivalent of a supply shock and our financial priorities are: first, to manage the dollar impact; and second to manage the margin impact.
We anticipate the impact of the proposed tariffs to result in a marginal increase to our cost of goods, which we will pass through in increased pricing.
But, and this is the big but, five, we are still monitoring inflation, tariffs, consumer sentiment, and the need for pricing.
There remains hesitancy and caution among our customer base around future production levels due to tariff uncertainty, potentially looming inflation, and sustained high interest rates.
We have not built in any specific impact of the tariffs related to the uncertainty of the situation.
We do not expect a negative impact to results related to previously announced increased tariffs on products from China, Canada or Mexico.
While we currently don't see that tariffs will directly impact our products and service, we do expect some indirect effects on BlackBerry due to impacts to our customers, including supply chains and macroeconomic demand, although these effects are currently difficult to model.